Warner Bros. Discovery’s stock: Long-term downtrend finally over?

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Shares of Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ:WBD) have seen a long-term downtrend since its formation from WarnerMedia’s spin-off by AT&T and merger with Discovery, Inc. The stock plummeted from $24 levels during the time of the merger to below $8 last month. However, recent developments, including the Q1 earnings report, have sparked enthusiasm among investors that the company may be on the verge of a turnaround.

The company’s financial performance in Q1 showed both positives and negatives. While revenue slightly missed expectations at $9.9 billion, the net loss decreased to $966 million, signaling improvement. Particularly noteworthy was the performance of the Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) segment, which saw revenue growth and increased adjusted EBITDA.

Cautious optimism amongst challenges

Analysts have taken notice, with sentiments ranging from caution to optimism. Some foresee incremental improvements in the company’s financials, driven by factors like consistent debt reduction and the potential of the Max business. Others remain skeptical, citing ongoing challenges in the streaming sector and structural issues within the company.

Despite these differing views, there’s consensus that WBD’s valuation makes it an intriguing prospect for investors. With the stock trading near its 52-week low and a favorable EV/Sales ratio compared to peers, it presents a value opportunity.

Looking ahead, the company’s strategies, such as bundling its streaming services with Disney’s offerings, could drive subscriber growth and revenue. However, challenges remain, including intense competition in the streaming space and the need for continued debt reduction.

As we delve into the technical analysis, we’ll examine price patterns, support and resistance levels, and key indicators to gain insights into potential price movements of WBD’s stock. By combining fundamental analysis with technical insights, investors can make more informed decisions about whether to invest in Warner Bros. Discovery or not.

Short-term strength: A positive turn

Despite Warner Bros. Discovery’s significant decline from $24 to below $8, much of that downward movement occurred in 2022. Throughout 2023, the stock experienced a rebound, trading within a range of $11 to $15.8 for most of the year. However, the bears regained control at the beginning of this year, resulting in a 27.5% year-to-date decline.

WBD chart by TradingView
Nevertheless, there have been signs of strength in the short-term charts since the beginning of this month. The stock has consistently held above $7.30, presenting an attractive opportunity for bullish investors. Buying near $8.20 with a small stop loss at $7.30 could offer a low-risk, high-reward entry point, with the potential to ride the stock up to its near-term resistance at around $12.80.

For traders with a bearish outlook, caution is advised as the stock has already experienced significant declines. Further downward movement would likely require a new negative catalyst. However, for those willing to take risks, initiating a short position above the $12.50 level if the stock reaches there in the coming weeks could be considered, with a stop loss set at $15.85. Profits could be taken if the stock falls back to the $7.35 level.

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